Attenuate the peak!

March 22, 2020: World Water Day
(aka Quarantine, Day 1)

Being in the water industry, around this time of year I have had a habit of posting something water-related in recognition of World Water Day. Well, given the ambient hysteria, March 22 came and went this year, and it seemed like nobody was thinking about water. Or were they? Here’s a chart that’s beginning to look very familiar these days:

…only this one has nothing to do with viruses or health care system capacity. This image was produced well before the current outbreak and simply reflects the concept of detention basin design that any hydrologist on the planet would be very familiar with. Check out the blog article about flow attenuation that serves as the source of this image. The concept is the same as “flattening the curve”, but we water engineers just call it something different. So let’s attenuate that peak! Science is science, after all!

Well, today, on this particular World Water Day, I’m “supposed” to be teaching a course in New Zealand; but as we have all seen, what was planned before the outbreak is largely irrelevant now, and in this new world, I am supposed to be home with my family. So regardless of previously planned itineraries, I am right where I am supposed to be at the moment!

This whole social distancing thing is nothing new to us; we just didn’t have a tweetable term for it every time we quarantined ourselves during the lead-up to one of my son’s heart surgeries over the last 20 years. Given his serious cardiovascular conditions, a regular flu bug can knock him out for months at a time; this one would certainly be a formidable, uphill battle for him. Going into his previous heart surgeries, sniffles alone could be indicators of a compromised immune system – and in my son’s case, sometimes these symptoms resulted in delays to scheduled surgeries that we knew he needed as soon as possible – but weren’t worth risking if there was a virus floating around.

I originally jumped off the cliff into self-employment four years ago in anticipation of potentially having to isolate ourselves for several months during a post-transplant period where my son’s immunity would be particularly low. As I set up my home office and developed online course material, I was trying to prepare for a recovery quarantine period; little did we know that lifeline would be needed to keep him healthy and with us before his transplant options even come up. So while the current isolation feels eerily familiar to our previous efforts to prepare for his surgeries, what feels new about it this time around is that the whole world is doing it with us.

So I guess the whole point of this post is to say thanks to everyone who is taking this thing seriously. Your kids would probably do just fine if they caught this bug. Mine wouldn’t. There are thousands of others like him out there. Thanks so much for looking out for them – for giving up movies and concerts and weddings and funerals and parties and jobs and everything else that is currently being sacrificed. I am certain these efforts have already saved the lives of vulnerable souls like my son’s.

Here in Western Australia, we’ve luckily been remote enough to buy us a few extra weeks before a full lock-down, but given our risk category in light of the growing spread, it’s now looking like the time to self-isolate. As for us, our quarantine may be a long one. Just because we as a society manage to flatten the curve doesn’t mean that my son will be safe out there in the aftermath. Or that it would be worth taking the gamble of venturing out into a less cautious, more infected world and potentially bringing an uninvited viral visitor home to share. I have no idea whether we’re looking at days or weeks or months or even a year. So come what may, we’re kicking off Day 1 of our quarantine with the only Corona that’s allowed in our house:

As for Surface Water Solutions, even though I’ve had to cancel all upcoming face-to-face courses, I’m excited to be launching our revamped online training portal in the next few weeks. Stay tuned for further developments and subscribe to be kept in the loop!

Cheers!

Krey Price

Next article: The Parable of Darth Covidious